Holiday data, market truths: What seasonal numbers tell us about retail real estate’s future 

Every December, the retail real estate sector turns into a data laboratory. For most consumers, the holiday rush is about shopping lists and delivery cut-offs. For landlords and investors, it’s a stress test, one that reveals the true condition of retail real estate long before annual reports or leasing cycles do. 

In the US, retail sales during the 2024 holiday season (Nov-Dec) reached $994.1 billion, representing a 4% year-over-year increase 

From sales per square foot to footfall counts, holiday metrics are the heartbeat data of brick-and-mortar retail. When analysed correctly, they don’t just measure performance, they forecast the future of leasing, tenant health, and property strategy across the entire commercial real estate (CRE) landscape. 

High-performing retail real estate continued to drive disproportionate results: luxury brands and tech retailers regularly post several thousand dollars per square foot annually, while mass-market chains often sit below $500. What matters, landlords say, is trajectory, not the absolute figure. A tenant that posts a 6% holiday-to-holiday increase is signalling resilience; one with a flat or negative trend may need rent relief or a shorter lease. 

2. Footfall tells the story of consumer behaviour shifts

Holiday foot traffic remains the purest reflection of consumer intent and it’s shifting fast. 

In the U.S., physical traffic surged on “super weekends” around Black Friday and December 21–23, offsetting quieter mid-season weeks. 

That divergence between formats tells landlords where demand truly lives. Retail parks and open-air centers continue to capture share from enclosed malls, particularly among value-driven shoppers looking for efficiency. Meanwhile, urban luxury districts depend on tourism and experiential retail to sustain volume, something not fully recovered to pre-pandemic peaks. 

For landlords, the implications are clear: format flexibility is the new premium amenity. Spaces that can morph between event activation, click-and-collect hub, and flagship store will outperform static configurations in 2025. 

• Food & Beverage (F&B): Dining and experiential formats again proved the anchor of dwell time. From the National Restaurant Association, eating & drinking place sales were up 6.5% year-on-year in August this year. 

• For retail landlords, that means restaurants, coffee operators, and entertainment tenants now play the role department stores once did: magnets that drive multi-hour visits and steady weekday trade. 

• Discount and Value Retail: While inflation squeezed discretionary budgets, discount chains and off-price retailers saw strong traffic. Many of these tenants deliver dependable sales per square foot and lower credit risk, making them a stabilizing force for community centers and suburban strips. 

At the same time, tenant remixing is accelerating. Underperforming fashion units are being repositioned for pop-ups, F&B, or hybrid retail-fulfillment concepts. Those that can sustain high sales densities like quick-service food and specialty value chains  are getting priority placement. 

Finally, CapEx and activation budgets are being redirected toward short, high-impact campaigns. Pop-ups, local events, and holiday-season installations convert peak traffic into long-term loyalty. “If you can capture that December footfall and re-engage those shoppers by February, your renewal rates improve,” notes one property manager for a regional REIT. 

The bigger picture: holiday data as a market barometres

In a market still searching for post-pandemic equilibrium, holiday data has become the CRE industry’s unofficial health check. 

On a promising note, investment activity in U.S. retail real estate reportedly rose 21.7% year over year in 2025, reflecting renewed confidence in the sector. Industry analyses indicate that leasing activity also strengthened through the third quarter, driven by steady consumer spending, expanding retail concepts, and growing investor appetite for well-located shopping centers and mixed-use properties. 

The holiday season exposes not only which retailers are thriving but also which property formats are adapting fastest to new spending behaviours. A strong holiday season can reaffirm investor confidence and justify rent escalations. A weak one can signal deeper structural issues, poor tenant curation, lagging amenities, or over-reliance on legacy anchors. 

For landlords and leasing teams preparing 2025 budgets, the message is clear: holiday metrics aren’t seasonal fluff, they’re strategic intelligence.